The model, the fit, and where every number comes from.
Chapter 5 · Sources & method
Rainbow model, our own fit, version 1. One line fit to every daily close on record:
ln(price) = a + b × ln(days since Jan 3, 2009)
Reading the fit…
Nine bands stack on the line. Each is the same step wide: about 1.35 times the price below it. The ladder runs from 0.47 to 7.03 times the line.
First drawn by azop in 2014, on trolololo's growth line. Blockchain Center made it famous. This fit is our own, on the same public prices. A fit describes the past. It is not a forecast.
Reading the sources…
Prices here are daily closes. A swing inside one day can be bigger than the day shows. In June 2011, one exchange flashed to one cent for a few minutes. The daily closes say that fall was 93%. Both are true, of different things.
The fit score (R²) grades how well the line hugs the past. It says nothing about next year.
Bitcoin's share of all crypto depends on who counts the coins. Sites disagree by a point or two. Ours comes from CoinGecko, named on the card.
The Fear & Greed score is one outside index, made by Alternative.me. We show it with its maker's name next to it, and we do not fold it into any other number here.
The model explorer stretches the model's own lines forward. Those lines are labelled as the model's, never as a forecast.
This is analysis and education, not financial advice. Numbers here are computed from real data and stamped with the day they describe. When a source is quiet, its card says so instead of showing an old number as new.
Drag the years. Pick a band. These are the model's lines stretched forward. Not a forecast.
1. How far out? 5 years out
2. Which line does the price follow?
Reading the model…
The model draws lines. It does not know the future.
Pick any start day: four years on, the price stood higher. Every time, so far. Why might it go on? Only 21 million will ever exist, and new coins come slower every four years.
No. The chart shows where the price sits inside its own past pattern. It cannot say buy, and it cannot say skip. No chart can.
What it can do: show what happened the other times the price sat where it sits now. See the band list on the front page, or scrub its chart.
Want to talk it through in your own words? Ask: should I buy bitcoin now? This is analysis and education, not financial advice.